Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted by 65 percent on Sunday. Only 12 vessels crossed the strait, a sharp decrease from 35 transits the day before.
This significant decline followed Iran's announcement that it had closed the waterway. Iran cited Israel's strikes on Lebanon as the reason for its decision. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global passage. It normally carries about one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
The closure raises concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets. Maritime traffic had shown signs of recovery just days earlier. Twenty-five vessels transited the strait on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April. This followed a memorandum of understanding between US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. Their agreement aimed at ending the US-Israel war on Iran. However, the recent Iranian declaration has reversed this positive trend.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared the waterway shut on Saturday. They cited Israeli "crimes" in Lebanon. They also blamed the US for failing to maintain a ceasefire in the country. US Central Command (CENTCOM), however, denied the closure on Saturday. CENTCOM stated that safe passage remained "intact". They reported 55 merchant ships transiting the strait that same day.
Breez Bakhtiari, a supply chain management expert at McMaster University, addressed this discrepancy. He noted that many vessels turn off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) to avoid detection. They then pass through a lane hugging the Omani shoreline. Bakhtiari suggested Iran is incentivized to claim decreased traffic. CENTCOM is motivated to downplay the impact. This could lead to differing reported figures. Windward reported that five of eight vessels entering the strait had their AIS turned off on Sunday. This supports the idea of vessels attempting to avoid detection.
Despite these renewed tensions, oil prices moved lower on Monday morning in Asia. Brent crude, the main international benchmark, fell by about 0.9 percent. It traded at just below $80 a barrel by 01:30 GMT. Asia's major stock markets also opened higher. Key indices in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan made substantial gains. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose by 1.8 percent. Seoul's Kospi increased by 1.5 percent. Taiex in Taipei surged by 2.6 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, however, dipped by 0.7 percent.
The situation highlights the complex interplay between geopolitical events and global trade. Ongoing talks between US and Iranian negotiators in Switzerland aim to salvage peace efforts. The conflict in Lebanon threatens to derail the existing 60-day ceasefire extension. Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said discussions included safe passage through the strait. A mechanism for this was reportedly set up. The world will be watching closely for how these developments impact future shipping and energy stability.