A new diplomatic proposal aims for Hamas to disarm in Gaza, allowing Israel to withdraw from 70% of the territory it currently occupies. This plan, while fraught with immense challenges, represents a rare opportunity for progress in the long-standing conflict.
The core of the proposition involves Hamas relinquishing its weapons in exchange for Israel's military pullback. This exchange seeks to address both Palestinian calls for an end to occupation and Israeli demands for security. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza, where over 2 million Palestinian civilians face catastrophic conditions, underscores the urgency of any peace initiative.
This diplomatic effort unfolds against a backdrop of severe devastation and deep-seated mistrust. According to the Hamas-run health ministry, whose figures the UN considers reliable, Israel has killed more than 70,000 Palestinians during the war and over 1,000 since the ceasefire. UNICEF reports that Israel has killed more than 20,000 children since October 7, 2023, including at least 1,000 babies. Much of Gaza lies in rubble, with extensive damage to homes and infrastructure.
On the Israeli side, a strong belief persists among the 80% Jewish majority that Hamas remains a deadly threat until fully disarmed. Hamas and other Palestinian groups attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, killing almost 1,200 people, two-thirds of whom were civilians, and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. Many Israelis fear a repeat of these attacks if Hamas retains power.
The success of this disarmament plan is also tied to broader political landscapes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a general election at the end of October and is behind in the polls. His political survival and ongoing corruption trial are significant factors. He must avoid appearing soft on Hamas to his domestic audience. Internationally, the United States, with its own midterm elections in November, plays a crucial role. President Donald Trump, seeking a foreign policy win, needs progress in Gaza and will pressure Netanyahu accordingly.
Hamas itself is under immense pressure, having lost many senior figures and fighters to Israeli actions. The group also faces internal challenges, including blame from some Palestinians for the consequences of the October 7 attack. Khalil al Hayya, the newly confirmed political leader of Hamas, was a key figure in accepting the framework for this agreement. Egypt and Turkey facilitated much of the diplomatic work to reach this point.
Israel has historically demanded full Hamas disarmament as a precondition for withdrawal. However, the current proposal suggests a step-by-step approach, starting small to build confidence. Sustained diplomatic engagement from international actors, particularly the US, will be essential to keep the process moving forward. Any sudden shocks or disruptions could derail these fragile negotiations, making a lasting peace even more elusive.