The New Patriotic Party (NPP) has challenged the sustainability of the government's recent economic gains, arguing that current improvements are heavily dependent on temporary factors. Kojo Oppong Nkrumah, Chairman of the NPP Policy Co-ordination Committee, stated these gains are not from durable policy reforms. This critique comes ahead of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review.
Mr. Oppong Nkrumah called for a "durability test" on the government's fiscal and macroeconomic performance. He questioned if current gains can last if supporting conditions change. Ghana's continued engagement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) under a new Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) supports this concern. The PCI is expected to be approved after the Mid-Year Budget Review.
This situation highlights Ghana's ongoing need for external oversight, even without new IMF financing. The IMF itself has identified state-owned enterprises, contingent liabilities, and dependence on high gold prices as key economic risks. These factors indicate a structural vulnerability in the nation's financial health.
Mr. Oppong Nkrumah noted that the reported 6.4 percent first-quarter growth was primarily due to record gold prices. Increased mining activity, not broad economic reforms, drove this growth. Industrial growth accelerated from 1.9 percent to 6.9 percent within one quarter, largely because of the mining sector. Export earnings reached a record US$31.1 billion due to historically high gold prices.
He asked what Ghana's growth, trade surplus, and primary balance would be if gold returned to its five-year average price. He urged the Finance Minister to publish a sensitivity analysis showing economic performance under lower gold prices. This would provide a clearer picture of the economy's resilience.
The former Information Minister also warned that inflationary pressures are re-emerging. Headline inflation recorded three consecutive monthly increases, reaching 5.3 percent in June. This rise is partly due to higher global fuel prices following Middle East tensions. The depreciation of the Ghana cedi this year also poses a risk. Exchange rate gains, which helped reduce Ghana's debt-to-GDP ratio, could easily reverse.
Mr. Oppong Nkrumah questioned inconsistencies in Ghana's debt figures. The Bank of Ghana reported debt at about 45.1 percent of GDP as of May 2026. However, IMF projections suggest the ratio could rise to 53 percent by year-end. He argued that recent government borrowing raises concerns about meeting medium-term debt sustainability targets. He called for a comprehensive debt sustainability analysis during the upcoming review.
The NPP also contended that the government's fiscal surplus resulted from significant spending cuts, not improved revenue performance. Bank of Ghana data shows first-quarter expenditure was 21.2 percent below target. Capital expenditure fell nearly 42 percent below projections. Foreign-financed projects, spending on goods and services, and grants to health, education, and local government all fell substantially short. The public sector wage bill was the only expenditure category largely protected.
Revenue mobilization remains weak, with first-quarter revenue falling 4.5 percent below programme targets. Oil revenues also declined sharply compared with previous years. Mr. Oppong Nkrumah stated, "Fiscal space created by under-execution is not fiscal space. It is deferral."
He described the Bank of Ghana's financial position as a "fiscal time bomb" due to significant reported losses and negative equity. Future recapitalisation of the central bank would pressure public finances. This would reduce resources for infrastructure and social services. He welcomed the Bank of Ghana's decision to stop pre-financing gold purchases for GoldBod. The Minority had long warned this arrangement exposed the state to significant financial risks. These comments precede Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson's presentation of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review.