African states are actively choosing to prioritise military expenditure over essential social services, particularly in regions experiencing conflict. This fiscal reorientation has significant implications for economic development and citizen welfare across the continent. The analysis challenges the common narrative of 'ungoverned spaces,' arguing that political vacuums are mythical and that governance always exists, albeit in different forms.
The shift in spending is evident in the Sahel, where military expenditure nearly doubled from 2.7 percent to 4.6 percent of GDP between 2016 and 2023. This surge includes a 339 percent increase in Mali, 238 percent in Burkina Faso, and 288 percent in Niger. These substantial increases represent deliberate fiscal choices to favour coercion over care, impacting the provision of critical public services.
This trend fits into a broader African economic context where states often exhibit spatially differentiated zones of authority. Governments invest in governance where resource extraction is profitable and withdraw where it is costly. This selective approach leads to 'hybrid governance,' where formal and informal institutions coexist, compete, and sometimes collude. The International Monetary Fund has documented how rising defence spending systematically crowds out health and education expenditure in conflict-affected African states.
The report, titled 'Governed differently: The political economy of state absence in Africa,' published by MyJoyOnline News, highlights this critical issue. Authors Brian T. Kagoro and Chukwuemeka B. Eze argue that labelling territories as 'ungoverned' externalises state failure. They contend it transforms the consequences of state neglect into natural conditions requiring military solutions, ignoring histories of extraction and political choices of underinvestment.
The implications of these fiscal choices are profound for citizens and economies. The Sahel's GDP per capita, for instance, stands at approximately 790, less than half the sub-Saharan African average. Research indicates that four years of conflict can erode GDP per capita by 18 percent, with losses reaching 28 percent over a decade. Humanitarian needs in the Sahel also ballooned from 894 million in 2019 to 2.3 billion by August 2024, even as states diverted resources to arms procurement. Decision-makers must now weigh the long-term economic and social costs of prioritising military solutions over sustainable development and public welfare.
This strategic shift means that states often return to these territories with soldiers and checkpoints, rather than teachers and judges. Citizens then experience the state primarily through its coercive apparatus, rather than through its service delivery functions. This dynamic reinforces the cycle of neglect and underdevelopment in peripheral regions. The opportunity cost of increased military spending is staggering, directly impacting the quality of life for millions. It also raises questions about the effectiveness of current state-building and security policies across the continent. Future policy discussions will likely focus on rebalancing these fiscal priorities to foster more inclusive and equitable development.