The gap between official and informal foreign exchange (FX) rates in Ghana continues to exceed 10 percent. On Thursday, June 18, forex bureaus quoted the US dollar between GHS 12.35 and GHS 12.50. Black market operators traded around GHS 12.30, while the Bank of Ghana's (BoG) official interbank selling rate was GHS 11.1986.
This premium, ranging from GHS 1.15 to GHS 1.30 above the interbank rate, represents 10.3 percent to 11.6 percent. This wide disparity persists even as the Ghana cedi has shown strong performance recently. The cedi's recovery is largely due to increased liquidity, better interbank trading activity, and ongoing dollar sales from the BoG.
This situation highlights a disconnect within Ghana's foreign exchange market. The BoG's auction program provides dollars to banks for large wholesale and corporate transactions. However, retail demand for travel, remittances, and small trade payments relies on forex bureaus and informal channels. These informal channels operate with a more limited supply of foreign currency.
Market participants largely attribute the cedi's recovery to stronger liquidity conditions. There has been improved interbank trading activity and continued central bank interventions. The Bank of Ghana offered 260 million US dollars through scheduled foreign exchange auctions during the week. This significantly exceeded bids of about 155 million US dollars, indicating supply outstripped demand in the official market.
The BoG has recently tightened its oversight of FX channels to address the market divergence. The central bank directed financial institutions to stop facilitating access to unauthorised foreign-currency wallet services. These services are often offered by crypto platforms without the necessary approvals under Ghana's Payment Systems and Services Act, 2019 (Act 987) and the Foreign Exchange Act, 2006 (Act 723). Institutions that continue to support these arrangements face supervisory or enforcement action.
Additionally, the BoG extended the registration deadline for existing International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to July 31, 2026. This extension allows more time for these operators to comply with guidelines issued earlier this year. Any partnerships between non-compliant operators and regulated financial institutions will become invalid after this deadline. This could lead to further enforcement measures.
These regulatory actions align with global energy market shifts that could reduce Ghana's demand for foreign exchange. The United States and Iran have reportedly reached a memorandum of understanding to end their conflict. A formal interim agreement is expected to be signed in Switzerland on June 19. This agreement includes the immediate resumption of Iranian oil exports and restored commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil markets have reacted significantly to these developments. Brent crude oil prices fell to about 79.45 US dollars per barrel on Wednesday. This is the lowest level since early March and almost 40 percent below its conflict peak. Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to be 80 US dollars per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. They also anticipate Persian Gulf crude exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July. Lower global oil prices would reduce the amount of foreign currency Ghana needs to import oil, easing pressure on the cedi. The Bank of Ghana previously identified energy-sector foreign exchange demand as a major driver of the cedi's depreciation.