Nigerian President Bola Tinubu's re-election bid faces significant public scrutiny as campaigns for January's elections commence. His All Progressives Congress (APC) party's decade-long rule is under intense examination regarding the economic well-being of Nigerians.
The core challenge for President Tinubu stems from widespread frustration over economic hardship and insecurity. Nearly 80% of Nigerians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Economic hardship and insecurity are cited as top concerns by 45% of the population, according to voter tracking data.
This situation fits into a broader narrative of economic struggle in Africa's most populous nation. Nigeria's GDP per capita has fallen by 53% to $1,224 from $2,586 in 2015, World Bank data shows. The national debt has also surged, increasing more than 12-fold to 159.35 trillion naira ($117.34 billion) by March 2026 from 12.6 trillion naira at the end of 2015. Debt-service costs are projected at $11.6 billion this year, nearly half of the anticipated revenue.
Cheta Nwanze, a partner at Nigeria-based risk advisory SBM Intelligence, commented on the situation. He stated, "The APC's tenure from 2015 to 2026 makes for unhappy reading and Tinubu's reforms have particularly brought severe pain." This sentiment underscores the public's perception of the current economic climate.
The upcoming election will test whether voters are willing to endure short-term economic pain for promised longer-term gains. President Tinubu has implemented significant economic reforms, including scrapping a costly fuel subsidy and twice devaluing the naira. These measures, while welcomed by investors and international lenders, have caused a severe cost-of-living crisis for many households. The government defends these actions as necessary to correct years of state intervention, citing higher revenues and stronger investor interest as positive signs. However, for ordinary Nigerians, the economy is judged by daily expenses like food costs. Butcher Abdullahi Sani noted a drastic drop in sales, struggling to sell two goats a day compared to six five years ago. This highlights the disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and household finances.
President Tinubu's challenge is compounded by his predecessor's legacy, Muhammadu Buhari. Buhari's administration, which Tinubu helped bring to power, implemented interventionist policies. These included import curbs, currency controls, border closures, and a fuel subsidy that cost the government $10 billion in 2022 alone. The current administration inherited an economy shaped by these policies. Sulaimon Arigbadu, executive secretary of HEDA Resource Centre, observed that "The inequality gap between the haves and those that do not have is increasing." This growing disparity further fuels public discontent.
Beyond the economy, security remains a critical issue. Amnesty International reports that at least 10,217 people have been killed by armed groups since Tinubu took office. Additionally, around 15 mass abductions of schoolchildren have been recorded. While the government claims military operations have curbed attacks, critics argue that threats have evolved. Banditry is widespread in the northwest, separatist unrest persists in the southeast, and kidnappings for ransom are pervasive. Auwal Musa Rafsanjani, head of CISLAC/Transparency International Nigeria, emphasized that for ordinary Nigerians, this election is fundamentally about survival and security. It concerns whether families can afford food and whether farmers can safely return to their farms. The APC came to power in 2015 promising to defeat insurgents, curb corruption, and revive the economy. Instead, Nigeria experienced a recession, and inflation reached record highs. The opposition argues that after more than a decade in power, only results matter. The data suggests the odds are against Tinubu, but a disunited opposition could still favor the incumbent.