The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Mali’s economic growth to accelerate to 5.5% in 2026. This marks a significant improvement from the estimated 4.9% growth in 2025. This positive outlook is primarily due to a rebound in gold production and easing inflation.
The IMF’s latest Staff Report highlights that improved supply conditions and a more stable macroeconomic environment will support this growth. Inflation is expected to decrease to 2.2% in 2026, down from an average of 2.9% in 2025. These factors are crucial for Mali’s recovery from a challenging period.
This revised forecast comes after a difficult 2025 for Mali. The country experienced disruptions from terrorist attacks, leading to fuel and electricity shortages. A prolonged dispute at its largest gold mine also hindered exports and government revenues. Gold remains central to Mali’s economic health, contributing significantly to foreign exchange and government income. High global gold prices and recovering lithium prices are expected to boost mining revenues further.
The IMF commended Mali’s authorities for meeting all targets under the second review of its Staff-Monitored Programme. This includes progress in domestic revenue mobilisation and improved tax administration. The Fund noted greater transparency in public financial management as well. These reforms are positive steps towards stronger economic governance, according to the IMF.
Mali’s improved outlook remains fragile, warned the Fund. Renewed terrorist attacks or fresh fuel shortages could derail the recovery. Global commodity price volatility also poses a risk. High regional financing costs could further complicate economic stability. Any security deterioration could weaken tax collection and increase inflationary pressures.
The IMF advised Mali not to use higher mining revenues for expanded recurrent spending. Instead, it recommended a medium-term fiscal framework. This framework would separate ordinary government revenues from exceptional mining receipts. This strategy would allow temporary commodity windfalls to be saved or used for debt reduction and long-term development projects. It would prevent short-term spending commitments that are difficult to maintain when prices fall.
This recommendation is vital for commodity-dependent economies like Mali. Absorbing extra income into permanent spending makes the budget vulnerable when prices drop. The IMF's message is to use current mining gains to strengthen resilience. It warns against deepening economic dependence on commodities. The fiscal environment remains challenging for Mali. The country faces high borrowing costs and rising debt-service obligations. Persistent spending pressures from insecurity and humanitarian needs also exist. Public investment quality and efficiency will be crucial for growth. Mali aims to convert its mineral wealth into lasting economic transformation. This means using revenues to improve infrastructure, education, and health. It also includes supporting private sector development and diversifying the economy. The IMF's advice aims to ensure long-term development, not just short-term budget fixes.