Ghana’s Government Statistician, Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu, expects inflation to decline later this year. This anticipated drop is due to the upcoming main harvest season.
Food items make up a large part of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures inflation. A plentiful harvest typically reduces food prices. This positive outlook arrives even as food inflation recorded significant increases in recent months.
This projection comes at a time when food inflation has concerned many households and policymakers. Food inflation rose to 3.3% in May 2026 from 2.2% in April 2026 on a year-on-year basis. The month-on-month increase from April to May 2026 was 2.0%, the fastest recorded in a single month. This surge was primarily due to rising prices for tomatoes, cooking fuel like charcoal, and ginger, alongside some supply disruptions for other foodstuffs.
Dr. Iddrisu stated this on June 16, 2026. He believes the historical trend of price reductions during harvest season will repeat itself. “We are heading towards the main harvest season and historically that brings prices down,” he explained. Dr. Iddrisu added, “We don’t expect things to stay at these high levels forever; at a point in time, things will slow down.”
The expected harvest should provide some relief to consumers and stabilize overall price levels. A strong harvest will increase the supply of agricultural produce, which directly influences food prices. This natural market adjustment is crucial for managing Ghana's inflation trajectory.
The Government Statistician also highlighted an important related development: the recent recovery of the Ghana cedi. A stronger cedi can lower the cost of imported inputs for farmers. It can also reduce the prices of imported food items. This could further contribute to easing inflationary pressures.
However, Dr. Iddrisu noted that the situation is mixed. Some food prices have dropped, balancing the increases seen in other items. He reinforced that inflation is expected to come down. He also stated, “We don’t see things getting out of hand going forward.”
Looking ahead, Dr. Iddrisu advised the government to maintain strict fiscal discipline. He also emphasized the need to invest in food systems. These investments should target storage facilities, irrigation projects, and improved transport networks. Addressing regional inequalities in market access is also vital to ensure stable food supply across the country.
The agricultural sector's performance is central to this outlook. The first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates showed a slowdown in the sector's growth. It decreased from 6.6% in the first quarter of 2025 to 4.4%. The fishing sub-sector, in particular, contracted by -18.5% year-on-year and -3.8% quarter-on-quarter. This raises concerns about food security.
Despite this, Dr. Iddrisu views the overall agricultural picture as improving. He pointed out that apart from fishing, all other sub-sectors showed moderate growth. He believes that seasonal effects and increasing production will positively impact the sector. He urged the government to implement drastic measures to revive the fishing sub-sector. He called for more investment and programs to address the sector’s intrinsic challenges. This will ensure that the sector performs much better.
The government's actions in food system investment and fiscal management will be critical. These measures can help mitigate unforeseen circumstances in the coming months. They will play a key role in influencing future inflation numbers and ensuring economic stability.