Ghana’s economy is projected to grow by 5.0% in 2026, according to new forecasts from the African Development Bank (AfDB). The bank’s African Economic Outlook 2026 also predicts 5.4% growth for Ghana in 2027.
Despite this positive medium-term outlook, Ghana faces a significant investment financing gap of approximately 9% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This shortfall stems from high public debt, insufficient domestic revenue generation, and tighter global financial conditions. These factors collectively constrain the country’s access to stable, long-term and affordable capital.
This projected growth contrasts with an estimated 5.8% GDP growth in 2025. Ghana’s economic recovery efforts have been central to its recent policy agenda. The government has focused on stabilising the currency and managing inflation. The financing gap highlights persistent structural vulnerabilities within Ghana’s economic framework, especially concerning resource mobilisation.
The AfDB report attributes the positive growth projections to improved confidence, prudent macroeconomic management, and sustained strength in the services sector and consumption. However, it warns that the outlook remains subject to risks. Addressing the financing gap requires diversifying the economy and deepening policy, regulatory, and institutional reforms. Integrating domestic and international financial systems will also help mobilise resources at the necessary scale.
The bank emphasised that a stable macroeconomic environment is crucial for attracting both domestic and foreign capital. This environment needs sustainable debt levels, transparent institutions, and efficient financial intermediaries. Key enablers include better alignment of fiscal and monetary policies. Enhanced regulatory and supervisory capacity, reliable financial infrastructure, and accurate data systems are also vital. Furthermore, transparent public financial management, anchored in accountability, will boost investor confidence.
Policy coherence is essential to encourage private investment and strategically leverage concessional financing (loans with lower interest rates or longer repayment periods). To mobilise significant development financing, Ghana must strengthen its domestic resource mobilisation. This means broadening the tax base and improving revenue administration. Deepening local currency capital markets can also reduce reliance on borrowing from other countries.
The AfDB advocates for using catalytic and concessional financing effectively. This includes public–private partnerships and blended finance instruments, which combine public and private funds. Such approaches can reduce investment risks in critical sectors like infrastructure, healthcare, education, and the energy transition. These measures will attract private capital, enhance economic resilience, and support sustained, inclusive growth across the nation.
Regionally, economic growth in West Africa is expected to stabilise at 4.7% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. This follows an estimated 4.8% growth in 2025. The AfDB noted that this projected regional growth is broad-based. Ten of the 15 countries in West Africa are expected to achieve 5% growth or higher in 2026. This performance places them among Africa's fastest-growing economies.