Ghana's Finance Minister, Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, has stated that inflation will not exceed 5 percent by the end of 2026. This assessment comes despite new global price pressures caused by increasing tensions in the Middle East. Dr. Forson believes Ghana has sufficient economic safeguards to manage these external challenges effectively.
The Minister acknowledged that conflicts present risks for import-reliant nations like Ghana. These risks include higher costs for petroleum products, fertilisers, and disruptions to global supply chains. He noted that fuel and agricultural inputs are critical areas where external shocks can affect local inflation. The recent increase in headline inflation to 3.4 percent in April from 3.2 percent in March halted a 15-month period of falling prices. Still, this rate remains below the Bank of Ghana’s target range of 8 percent, plus or minus two percentage points.
This projection fits within Ghana's ongoing efforts to stabilise its economy. The country saw a sharp drop in inflation from 23.8 percent in December 2024 to 3.2 percent in March 2026. This was the lowest level since the 2021 economic re-basing. The government aims to maintain this positive trend, building on macroeconomic gains achieved recently. Stronger external positions, supported by increased gold production and elevated global gold prices, are crucial to this strategy.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Dr. Forson highlighted Ghana's improved position compared to past periods of global instability. He stated, “The good news is that in Ghana, we do not have subsidies on petroleum products. But the good news is that we have built some significant reserves.” He also added that rising gold production and high global gold prices are strengthening Ghana’s external finances. This helps provide foreign exchange liquidity crucial for essential imports. “Our gold production is also going up and gold prices are also very high. And so Ghana is in a comfortable position to be able to withstand those shocks,” he explained.
The Finance Minister conceded that price pressures might increase slightly in the coming months. This could happen if higher energy and transport costs affect the wider economy. However, he maintained confidence in the overall outlook, stating, “I don’t think the country’s inflation will exceed 5 percent by the end of the year.” He also pointed to stronger export earnings from cocoa, gold, and crude oil as factors stabilising the Ghana cedi and local prices. The Bank of Ghana previously warned in its March 2026 Monetary Policy Report that Middle East geopolitical events could reverse global disinflation. This caution led the central bank to keep its policy rate at 14 percent after earlier rate cuts. This decision reflected renewed concerns over rising crude oil prices and supply chain disruptions. The Minister's confidence hinges on robust reserves, improved export revenues, and the absence of petroleum subsidies. These factors are expected to mitigate fiscal and foreign exchange pressures historically worsening external shocks. The key challenge will be if global oil prices stay high for an extended period. Persistent high fuel costs could still inflate transport expenses, food prices, fertiliser costs, and general business expenditures. For now, the government is relying on Ghana's recent economic improvements to absorb any shock. They aim to prevent inflation from returning to the double-digit levels seen during past cost-of-living crises.