Ghana’s economic recovery remains on track, supported by stronger growth, falling inflation, and improved debt indicators. However, large domestic bond maturities and persistent energy sector losses could threaten this progress unless reforms accelerate, Deloitte has warned. The professional services firm highlighted these risks in its July 2026 analysis of the government’s Mid-Year Budget Statement.
Fiscal consolidation has helped restore macroeconomic stability without suppressing economic growth. Real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 6.40% in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding the government’s full-year target of 4.90%. Non-oil growth reached 6.30%, indicating broad-based economic improvement. Inflation declined to 5.30% in June from 23.80% at the end of 2024, creating conditions for stronger purchasing power, improved business confidence, and lower borrowing costs. Growth has become more broad-based, supported by information and communication technology, mining, trade, and manufacturing sectors.
This positive trajectory fits into Ghana’s broader economic narrative of post-debt restructuring recovery and fiscal discipline. Debt-service expenditure declined to 28.60% of domestic revenue by mid-2026 from 55.70% in 2022. Ghana’s nominal public debt fell to 45.00% of GDP by mid-2026 from 61.80% at the end of 2024. This reduction followed external debt restructuring, lower domestic interest rates, and efforts to pre-fund future payments through the Sinking Fund. The 91-day Treasury bill rate declined to 5.73% by June, reducing government interest expenses.
Deloitte identified more than GHS 111 billion in Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP) bonds maturing in 2027 and 2028 as a major refinancing risk. About GHS 58 billion falls due in 2027, followed by GHS 53 billion in 2028. Failure to manage these obligations in advance could create liquidity pressures, destabilize domestic markets, and undermine the country’s improved debt position.
To mitigate these risks, Deloitte called for targeted bond buybacks, debt swaps, phased refinancing, and greater use of concessional borrowing for commercially viable projects. It also recommended fully capitalizing the Sinking Fund to its projected GHS 30 billion target by the end of 2026. Issuing longer-term cedi-denominated bonds could also reduce reliance on short-term Treasury bills. Despite declining policy and money-market rates, Deloitte noted that benefits had not fully passed to private borrowers due to wide commercial lending spreads. Expanding blended-finance and partial credit-guarantee schemes through institutions like Development Bank Ghana could lower risk premiums for small and medium-sized enterprises and labor-intensive industries.
Ghana’s external sector has also strengthened, with gross international reserves reaching US$12.9 billion in June, equivalent to five months of import cover. Gold accounted for 68.00% of exports during the first half of 2026, supported by formalized small-scale mining exports, local refining arrangements, and the Ghana Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy. However, this concentration leaves the economy vulnerable to commodity-price shocks. Deloitte urged stronger investment in agro-processing, light manufacturing, and export-oriented industries to reduce dependence on gold, cocoa, and crude oil.
Energy sector liabilities remain another major threat. Deloitte stated that under-recovery of electricity costs, weak revenue collection, and accumulated arrears have historically increased government borrowing. These issues place pressure on the cedi and reduce fiscal space for other development spending. Without reforms, Ghana’s annual energy sector financing shortfall could reach about US$2.2 billion, according to an IMF estimate cited in the report. Deloitte recommended quarterly audits of the Electricity Company of Ghana’s revenue accounts, enforcement of the Cash Waterfall Mechanism, and private-sector participation in electricity distribution. Successful implementation will also require improved metering, billing, and operational efficiency.
The report also outlined tighter tax and regulatory measures. The Ghana Revenue Authority expects to integrate the Integrated Tax Administration System with the Integrated Customs Management System by December 2026. This integration will enable stronger data-driven enforcement and compliance monitoring. The government also intends to align the VAT registration threshold for services with goods at GHS 750,000.00. It will also introduce collection mechanisms for non-resident digital service providers and zero-rate specific supplies.