Ghana has emerged from its International Monetary Fund (IMF) supported rescue programme with sharply lower inflation, stronger foreign exchange reserves, and an improved debt outlook. However, significant vulnerabilities remain across the energy, cocoa, and financial sectors, according to the Fund’s Executive Board.
The IMF’s final assessment of Ghana’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme noted broadly satisfactory performance. Sustained reforms and favourable commodity prices delivered substantial gains in macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability. Inflation has fallen sharply, and the primary fiscal balance moved from a large deficit into surplus.
This assessment marks a significant improvement from the conditions that forced Ghana to seek a US$3 billion IMF programme in 2023. At that time, the country faced rapidly rising prices, a weakening currency, unsustainable public debt, and restricted access to international capital markets. International reserves have also been rebuilt beyond programme targets.
The IMF warned that progress depends on continued reform implementation under Ghana’s new Policy Coordination Instrument. This non-financing arrangement anchors economic policy after the ECF programme. Fiscal discipline will remain central to meeting Ghana’s development, social, and security needs without reversing debt sustainability gains.
Domestic revenue mobilisation needs improvement, and public financial management must be strengthened. Investment planning and oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) also require reinforcement, particularly in the energy and cocoa sectors. These areas remain among the largest sources of fiscal risk for the nation.
Accumulated liabilities, operational losses, and weak governance in public entities could migrate onto the government’s balance sheet. This would increase borrowing requirements and weaken the debt trajectory. The Fund also called for stronger social protection to shield vulnerable households from fiscal adjustment effects and potential economic shocks.
Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.00% in 2025, outperforming the 4.80% projection from the fifth ECF review. Growth is expected to moderate to 4.80% in 2026 before settling at about 5.00% annually through 2031. Non-extractive economic growth, excluding mining and oil, reached 7.00% in 2025 but is projected to slow to 4.40% in 2026.
End-of-period inflation fell from 23.80% in 2024 to a preliminary 5.40% in 2025. The IMF expects inflation to rise towards the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term objective of 8.00% by the end of 2026. It should remain at that level through 2031. The central bank received credit for successfully anchoring disinflation and rebuilding external buffers.
Maintaining monetary policy credibility depends on protecting the independence of the Bank of Ghana. It also requires permanently ending quasi-fiscal activities. The IMF called for the complete transfer of the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme to the Ghana Gold Board. Full implementation of the central bank recapitalisation plan is also necessary.
The financial sector has become more resilient, but vulnerabilities persist at some state-owned and private banks. Specialised deposit-taking institutions also show weaknesses. The IMF called for decisive corrective action, robust supervision, and completion of Ghana’s crisis management and bank resolution framework. Governance reforms, including the timely enactment of the revised Conduct of Public Officials Bill, are crucial for transparency and public confidence.