Fitch Solutions has significantly revised Ghana's projected current account surplus for 2026 to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This marks a notable increase from its previous forecast of 5.2%. The UK-based firm expects this strong performance to continue into 2027, with a substantial surplus of 5.0% of GDP.
This upward revision primarily stems from anticipated elevated gold exports. High gold prices will continue to boost Ghana's export earnings and overall external stability. While the surplus will narrow slightly in 2027, it remains considerably stronger than the average deficit of 0.9% of GDP recorded between 2016 and 2025.
Ghana's economic stability has been a key focus for policymakers amid ongoing debt restructuring efforts. A sustained current account surplus helps strengthen the cedi and improves the country's foreign exchange reserves. This positive external position provides a crucial buffer against global economic shocks and supports investor confidence in Ghana's financial health. It also signals a healthier balance of payments, reducing reliance on external borrowing for balance of payments support.
Fitch Solutions' Commodities Team forecasts gold prices to remain elevated, averaging USD4,200 per ounce in 2027. This is more than double the 2016-2025 average of USD1,830 per ounce. The firm attributes this to continued central bank buying and persistent global concerns about debt sustainability and inflation. These factors outweigh a modest expected decline in prices due to stronger global growth and easing geopolitical tensions.
The high price environment incentivises increased gold production in Ghana. The country's gold output is projected to rise by 3.9% in 2027. Gold accounts for approximately 40% of Ghana's merchandise exports, making its performance critical to the nation's trade balance. This strong gold sector performance is a key driver of the improved current account outlook.
However, a weaker cocoa sector will partially offset these gains in 2027. Fitch Solutions' Agribusiness team forecasts a 9.1% contraction in cocoa output for the 2026/27 season. Below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures, linked to El Niño, will disrupt critical pod development. Structural challenges like ageing tree stocks and limited capacity among smallholders to mitigate weather shocks also contribute to this decline. This will impact Ghana's overall trade surplus, despite higher spot cocoa prices.
Ghana forward-sells most of its cocoa crop at fixed prices six to twelve months in advance. This practice means higher spot prices are unlikely to fully compensate for lower export volumes. As a result, the trade surplus is forecast to narrow to 9.7% of GDP in 2027, down from 12.0% in 2026. Despite this narrowing, it will still remain well above the 2016-2025 average of 3.3%.
The sustained current account surplus provides a positive signal for Ghana's economic recovery and fiscal management. It suggests improved external resilience, which is vital for attracting foreign investment and maintaining currency stability. Decision-makers will monitor the interplay between strong gold performance and the challenges in the cocoa sector. The government's ability to diversify exports and mitigate climate impacts on agriculture will be crucial for long-term economic stability. This positive external position should support Ghana's ongoing discussions with international financial institutions and private creditors.