Ghana's consumer and business confidence indicators both registered a decline by the end of the first half of 2026. This suggests that households and companies became more cautious despite continued expansion in overall economic activity.
The Bank of Ghana’s July 2026 Summary of Economic and Financial Data revealed a decrease in the Consumer Confidence Index to 112.70 in June from its previous level of 113.40. Business confidence also moderated, with the Business Confidence Index falling to 107.70 from 108.10 in the preceding period. These movements indicate a softening of optimism among consumers and businesses, who are assessing renewed inflation, currency depreciation, and the broader cost environment.
This dip in confidence occurs within a broader economic context where Ghana’s economy grew by 6.40% year-on-year during the first quarter of 2026. The services sector expanded by 7.10%, industry by 6.90%, and agriculture by 4.00%. This divergence between strong economic activity and declining confidence highlights that improvements in production and trade may not yet fully translate into stronger sentiment among the populace and businesses.
The Bank of Ghana's surveys offer a crucial measure of how households and private-sector operators perceive current economic conditions and their expectations. Consumer sentiment is typically influenced by employment prospects, household finances, and the cost of essential goods. Business confidence reflects expectations about sales, investment, operating costs, and the overall economic environment.
The primary drivers for the decline in confidence are renewed price and exchange-rate pressures. Headline inflation increased from 3.70% in May to 5.30% in June 2026, reversing some of the sharp declines from the previous year. Non-food inflation rose more strongly to 6.30%, while food inflation increased to 3.90%. This inflation surge likely influenced consumer expectations by raising concerns about purchasing power and future price increases for transport, utilities, and imported products.
The Ghana cedi also depreciated significantly, losing 9.50% against the US dollar between the start of the year and July 17, 2026, trading at approximately GHS 11.55 to US$1. It recorded a similar 9.50% depreciation against the British pound and weakened by 7.10% against the euro. Currency depreciation directly impacts both consumer and business confidence by increasing the domestic cost of imports and foreign-currency obligations. Companies relying on imported raw materials and fuel face higher operating costs, which can then be passed on to consumers through retail prices.
Despite these challenges, there were positive developments in borrowing costs and private-sector credit. The average lending rate declined to 15.64% in June 2026 from 27.00% a year earlier. The Ghana Reference Rate also fell to 10.02% from 23.80% over the same period. Nominal private-sector credit expanded by 41.20% year-on-year, with real credit growth reaching 34.10%. This expansion suggests improved access to bank financing due to lower interest rates and better liquidity conditions.
However, lower borrowing costs do not automatically translate into greater business optimism. Companies may remain cautious when demand conditions, exchange-rate movements, input costs, taxation, and policy uncertainty continue to affect investment decisions. The decline in consumer confidence may similarly indicate that headline economic improvements have not been felt evenly across all households. Consumers often focus more heavily on actual price levels, incomes, and employment conditions than on the rate at which prices are increasing, even when inflation is significantly lower than previous peaks.
Decision-makers will closely monitor these confidence indicators alongside inflation and currency movements. The government and the Bank of Ghana will need to address these price pressures to restore stronger consumer and business sentiment. Sustained efforts to stabilize the cedi and manage inflation will be crucial for fostering a more optimistic economic outlook in the coming months.