German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces intensified pressure following a cabinet reshuffle that sparked anger within his own party. His personal approval rating has plummeted to 15%, with only 49% of his party's supporters satisfied with his performance.
This internal dissent comes as Merz's CDU/CSU bloc trails the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in national polls. The AfD now leads with 27% support, compared to the conservatives' 21%, marking their lowest score since last year's federal elections. This situation puts a spotlight on the government's competence as it battles to fend off a far-right surge at state elections in September.
The political turmoil fits into a broader narrative of increasing populism and challenges to established parties across Europe. Germany, as Europe's largest economy, faces significant economic reforms that Merz has promised to revive growth. The stability of its government is crucial for both domestic and regional economic confidence. The upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are seen as critical tests for the AfD's potential to gain power at a state level for the first time.
A member of the CDU federal executive board told Reuters that "The events of the past week have significantly damaged Merz's standing within the CDU." Merz, for his part, predicted the storm would pass by September, when parliament reconvenes. He stated, "I assume that tempers will have cooled somewhat by September."
The immediate implication is a potential weakening of Merz's authority within his own party and the ruling coalition. A tighter-than-expected vote on his pick for parliamentary faction chief, Thorsten Frei, could further undermine his position. Decision-makers and markets will closely watch the September state elections, as an AfD victory could signal a significant shift in Germany's political landscape and potentially impact future policy directions. The ability of Merz to coordinate with the centre-left Social Democrats to push reforms will also be under scrutiny.
The reshuffle was triggered by the abrupt resignation of party heavyweight Jens Spahn. Spahn resigned over a decision to have a child through surrogacy abroad, despite previously supporting a ban on the practice in Germany. Merz then appointed his chief of staff, Thorsten Frei, to succeed Spahn as parliamentary faction chief. He also made Health Minister Nina Warken chief of staff.
Other changes included the sacking of Patrick Schnieder as Transport Minister. This decision angered conservatives in Schnieder's home state of Rhineland-Palatinate. Lawmakers there declined to meet Merz, citing a lack of "mutual trust and respect" in a leaked letter. Junior health minister Tino Sorge also reacted angrily after losing his job, claiming Merz announced it to the media before informing him personally. Sorge is from Saxony-Anhalt, a key state for upcoming elections.
The AfD has capitalized on the dissent, with co-chief Tino Chrupalla accusing Merz of "cold and unjust" treatment. Chrupalla stated on X that Merz was dismissing a proven policy expert and removing an East German from the government. The AfD has also gained popularity with a hard line on migration, an issue that resurfaced after a deadly attack on the Berlin Pride event. The suspect, a German citizen of Lebanese background, had pledged allegiance to the Islamic State.
Despite the current challenges, Merz's job appears safe in the short term due to a lack of viable alternatives within the party. The exit of Spahn also removed one of his likely challengers. However, the ongoing internal strife and the AfD's growing strength pose significant long-term challenges for Merz and the stability of German politics.