Fitch Solutions, the research division of global credit ratings agency Fitch, projects Ghana's inflation will reach 9% by the end of 2026. This forecast comes despite the Ghana cedi's strong performance in recent months.
The expected increase in inflation will largely stem from renewed pressure on the Ghana cedi. Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director at Fitch Solutions, presented this projection during a PwC Ghana webinar on the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review. He noted that the Bank of Ghana's new stance suggests the cedi will not stabilize strongly in the coming months.
This projection places Ghana's future inflation significantly higher than the Ministry of Finance's current outlook. The Ministry expects inflation to end 2026 within its target range of 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. This divergence highlights differing views on the trajectory of Ghana's economic stability.
Mr. Kruiniger attributed the anticipated inflation rise to several factors. Stronger domestic demand will contribute to price increases. Mounting imported inflation, as the cedi weakens year-on-year, will also play a role. Higher food prices, linked to El Niño-related weather disruptions, are another significant driver. Fitch Solutions further predicts inflation will climb to 13.2% by the end of 2027.
Dr. Theo Acheampong, Technical Advisor to the Finance Minister, stated the Ministry of Finance still expects inflation to remain within its target range. He explained that this projection is based on various scenarios and economic assessments. Dr. Acheampong also assured the public of the government's commitment to fiscal discipline. This commitment aims to sustain current macroeconomic gains.
Fitch Solutions' forecast of 9% inflation by 2026 is notably higher than other official projections. Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, for instance, maintains an expectation of 5% inflation by December. This is despite ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The differing forecasts underscore the complexities and uncertainties in Ghana's economic outlook.
Ghana remains relatively insulated from the ongoing US-Iran conflict. Elevated gold prices provide a strong external buffer for the country. Ghana also maintains a broadly balanced energy trade position. These factors contribute to a positive economic outlook despite inflation concerns, according to Mr. Kruiniger.
The Bank of Ghana's monetary policy decisions will be crucial in managing these inflationary pressures. Investors and businesses will closely monitor the cedi's performance and the government's fiscal measures. The interplay between global commodity prices, domestic demand, and exchange rate stability will define Ghana's economic path in the coming years.