Fitch Solutions, the research division of global credit ratings agency Fitch, projects Ghana's inflation rate will increase to 9% by the close of 2026. This anticipated rise is primarily attributed to renewed pressure on the Ghana cedi, the national currency. The forecast stands in contrast to the government's more optimistic projection of 5% inflation by the end of the current year.
Mike Kruiniger, an Associate Director at Fitch Solutions, presented this outlook during a PwC Ghana webinar focused on the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review. He explained that the recent sharp decline in inflation was largely supported by the cedi's strong performance. However, based on the Bank of Ghana's new policy stance, Fitch Solutions does not expect the cedi to stabilize strongly in the coming months, leading to inflationary pressures.
This projection places Fitch Solutions' outlook significantly higher than the Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson's latest forecast. Dr. Forson, speaking on Joy News’ PM Express on July 23, maintained that inflation would fall to 5% by December, despite ongoing global geopolitical tensions. The divergence in these forecasts highlights differing views on Ghana's economic trajectory and the effectiveness of current monetary policies.
Fitch Solutions further projects that inflation will climb to 13.2% by the end of 2027. This continued increase is expected to be fueled by stronger domestic demand within Ghana. Additionally, mounting imported inflation, resulting from a weakening cedi on a year-on-year basis, will contribute to higher prices. The firm also cited higher food prices linked to El Niño-related weather disruptions as a significant factor.
Dr. Theo Acheampong, Technical Advisor to the Finance Minister, speaking at the same PwC Ghana webinar, reiterated the Ministry of Finance's position. He stated that the Ministry still expects inflation to end 2026 within its target range of 8%, plus or minus 2 percentage points. This projection, he noted, is based on various scenarios and economic assessments conducted by the Ministry. Dr. Acheampong also assured stakeholders of the government's commitment to fiscal discipline to sustain recent macroeconomic gains.
He explained that the government did not seek additional funding in the Mid-Year Budget. This decision stems from the belief that prudent expenditure management will enable the government to meet its spending obligations without further borrowing. This commitment to fiscal prudence is a key element of the government's strategy to manage inflation and maintain economic stability.
Despite its inflation concerns, Fitch Solutions maintains a positive overall outlook for Ghana’s economy. Mr. Kruiniger noted that Ghana remains relatively insulated from the ongoing US-Iran conflict. This resilience is supported by elevated gold prices, which continue to provide a strong external buffer for the economy. Furthermore, the country's broadly balanced energy trade position contributes to its economic stability.
Fitch Solutions forecasts Ghana’s economy to grow by 5.7% in 2026. This figure is above the 2016–2025 average of 4.9%, indicating robust economic activity. The growth is expected to be driven by resilient domestic demand and continued expansion in the mining sector. The firm also described the fiscal path outlined in the Mid-Year Budget Review as credible, projecting a commitment-basis fiscal deficit of 1.7% of GDP. This is lower than the government’s target of 2.2%, largely due to slower execution of development projects and lower borrowing costs.
However, Fitch Solutions cautioned that risks remain for Ghana's economic outlook. These include a potentially more hawkish US Federal Reserve, which could negatively impact gold prices. A stronger-than-expected El Niño event could also further increase food prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures. These external and environmental factors could challenge Ghana's economic stability.