Fitch Solutions, the research arm of global credit ratings agency Fitch, projects Ghana’s inflation will rise to 9% by the end of 2026. This forecast indicates a significant increase from current levels, despite recent improvements in the country's inflation figures. The firm attributes this expected rise primarily to renewed pressure on the Ghana cedi, the national currency.
This projection stands in stark contrast to the Ghanaian government’s more optimistic outlook. Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson has maintained a target of 5% inflation by December 2026. The divergence in these forecasts highlights differing views on the trajectory of Ghana's economic stability and the effectiveness of current monetary policies.
The anticipated increase in inflation fits into a broader narrative of economic challenges and recovery efforts in Ghana. The country has been grappling with high inflation for several years, impacting the purchasing power of citizens and the stability of businesses. The Bank of Ghana's efforts to stabilize the cedi and control price increases are crucial in this context, as currency depreciation directly fuels imported inflation.
Mike Kruiniger, an Associate Director at Fitch Solutions, made this projection during a PwC Ghana webinar on the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review. He explained that the recent sharp decline in inflation was largely supported by the cedi’s strong performance. Mr. Kruiniger stated, "Now, based on the new stance of the Bank of Ghana, in the coming months, we don’t expect the cedi to stabilise strongly." This suggests a potential shift in the central bank's approach or market conditions affecting currency stability.
Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions also projects inflation to rise to 13.2% by the end of 2027. This longer-term increase is expected to be driven by stronger domestic demand, mounting imported inflation as the cedi weakens on a year-on-year basis, and higher food prices. These food price increases are linked to El Niño-related weather disruptions, which can severely impact agricultural output and supply chains.
Despite these inflation concerns, Fitch Solutions maintains a positive outlook for Ghana’s economy overall. Mr. Kruiniger noted that Ghana remains relatively insulated from global conflicts, such as the US-Iran conflict. This resilience is supported by elevated gold prices, which provide a strong external buffer, and the country’s broadly balanced energy trade position. Gold exports are a significant source of foreign exchange for Ghana, helping to offset import costs.
Fitch Solutions forecasts Ghana’s economy to grow by 5.7% in 2026. This growth rate is above the 2016–2025 average of 4.9%, indicating a robust economic expansion. The firm attributes this growth to resilient domestic demand and continued growth in the mining sector. The fiscal path outlined in the Mid-Year Budget Review was also described as credible, with a projected commitment-basis fiscal deficit of 1.7% of GDP, lower than the government’s target of 2.2%. This lower deficit is largely due to slower execution of development projects and reduced borrowing costs.
However, Fitch Solutions cautioned that risks remain. These include a more hawkish US Federal Reserve, which could weigh on gold prices by making dollar-denominated assets more attractive. A stronger-than-expected El Niño event could also further increase food prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures. Decision-makers will need to closely monitor these factors and adapt policies to mitigate potential negative impacts on the Ghanaian economy and its citizens.