Fitch Solutions has significantly increased its forecast for Ghana's current account surplus in 2026 to 7.8% of Gross Domestic Product. This marks a substantial rise from its previous projection of 5.2%, indicating a stronger external financial position for the nation.
This upward revision is primarily driven by elevated gold prices and stronger overall export earnings. The research firm anticipates gold prices will remain high, providing Ghana with a substantial external buffer. This positive outlook comes despite emerging pressures from weaker cocoa output and higher energy costs.
This forecast represents a sharp reversal from Ghana's historical average current account deficit of 0.9% of GDP between 2016 and 2025. A sustained surplus means Ghana earns more foreign currency than it spends, which can strengthen its reserves and reduce pressure on the cedi. This improved external position provides a crucial counterweight to Ghana's ongoing fiscal and financing vulnerabilities.
Fitch expects bullion prices to average around US$4,200 per ounce in 2027. This is more than double the US$1,830 average recorded between 2016 and 2025. Continued central-bank buying, global debt concerns, and persistent inflation risks are expected to keep demand for gold strong. For Ghana, this is particularly impactful as gold accounts for approximately 40% of its merchandise exports. Fitch also projects domestic gold production to increase by 3.9% in 2027, further boosting export volumes.
The Bank of Ghana reported a current account surplus of US$5.1 billion during the first half of 2026. This was an increase from US$4.1 billion a year earlier, supported by strong gold and cocoa export receipts. The trade surplus also rose to US$8.8 billion from US$5.8 billion over the same period. This performance has helped Ghana rebuild its external buffers after a period of foreign-exchange shortages and currency depreciation. A large current account surplus supports reserve accumulation, eases pressure on the cedi, and limits reliance on external borrowing for imports.
However, the composition of this surplus reveals a structural weakness. Much of the improvement stems from exceptionally favorable gold prices, not a broad transformation of Ghana's export base. This makes Ghana's external position sensitive to changes in global commodity markets, especially if gold prices eventually decline. The cocoa outlook further illustrates this vulnerability. Fitch expects Ghana's cocoa production to decline by 9.1% during the 2026/27 crop season. Below-average rainfall and high temperatures linked to El Niño are disrupting critical pod development. These weather conditions worsen existing problems like ageing cocoa trees and limited farmer investment capacity. While tighter West African supplies may push international cocoa prices higher, Fitch does not expect these gains to fully offset lower Ghanaian export volumes. Ghana often forward-sells much of its cocoa, meaning producers may not immediately benefit from sharp spot price increases.
Energy costs present another significant risk. The Bank of Ghana noted that rising energy-related imports, partly due to the Middle East conflict, have increased the country's import bill. Gross international reserves declined to US$12.9 billion at the end of June from US$13.8 billion at end-December 2025. This partly reflects elevated energy payments. Ghana is currently benefiting from high gold prices while simultaneously facing exposure to high crude oil and refined product costs. The balance between these two forces will become increasingly important if global energy prices remain high. Decision-makers will need to monitor these dynamics closely to ensure sustained economic stability.