Deloitte, the professional services firm, forecasts Ghana's inflation rate to decline significantly to 4.90% in July 2026. This projection marks a substantial reduction from the 5.3% recorded in June 2026. The firm expects inflation to continue tapering off in the second half of 2026.
This anticipated decrease is primarily due to the start of the harvest food season, which will improve food supply. Food inflation, which rose to 3.9% in June 2026, is expected to ease and stabilize. Non-food inflation is also projected to decline, supported by easing global oil prices and an appreciating Ghana cedi.
Ghana's economic narrative has recently focused on managing inflation and stabilizing the currency. The country has experienced fluctuating inflation rates, with June 2026 seeing a third consecutive monthly increase. This forecast offers a positive outlook, suggesting that recent policy interventions and natural economic cycles are beginning to yield results. The Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has been closely monitoring these trends.
Deloitte's West Africa Inflation update indicates that the Bank of Ghana's MPC is likely to keep the policy rate unchanged in July 2026. This decision reflects a cautious but accommodative stance. The central bank aims to balance inflation risks with efforts to sustain the cedi's stability and support ongoing economic recovery.
The implications of this forecast are significant for businesses and consumers. A lower inflation rate could lead to more stable prices for goods and services, improving purchasing power. It could also provide a more predictable environment for investment and economic planning. Decision-makers will closely watch the actual inflation figures and the Bank of Ghana's policy rate announcement.
Ghana's year-on-year headline inflation in June 2026 increased to 5.3% from 3.7% in May. This rise was driven by a 3.9% food inflation rate and a 6.3% non-food inflation rate. Food inflation was impacted by escalating costs of locally produced items and higher transport and energy costs. Non-food inflation was influenced by increased transport fares, housing, rental costs, and secondary school fees.
Despite the overall increase, consumer prices decreased by 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in June 2026. This was down from 1.1% in May 2026, primarily due to easing energy costs, specifically falling global pump prices for gasoline. Inflation for locally produced goods increased to 6.7% from 5.0% in May, accounting for 86.6% of headline inflation.
Imported inflation, in contrast, rose to a more modest 2.3%. Inflation pressures in June 2026 remained service-driven, with nine out of 13 divisions recording inflation above the national average of 5.3%. This signaled elevated costs in formal and contract-based services. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels inflation decreased from 11.8% in May to 7.9% in June 2026.
This decrease reflected milder price pressures and stabilizing utility costs. These were driven by the ripple effect of downward utility tariff adjustments for the second quarter of 2026. Transport inflation increased in June 2026 to 9.1% from -2.8% in May. This was due to a 20% nationwide increase in public transport fares, including bus and 'trotro' fares, effective June 2, 2026.
Education services inflation rose to 8.7% in June 2026. This was driven by higher tuition and operational costs at primary and secondary schools, alongside increased prices for educational materials and utilities. Restaurants and accommodation services inflation also rose to 8.2% in June 2026, up from 7.2% in May 2026. This increase was attributed to high locally produced input costs and broader domestic service-sector price hikes.