Deloitte forecasts Ghana's inflation rate will decrease to 4.90% in July 2026. This projection follows a rise to 5.3% in June 2026, marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The professional services firm attributes the expected decline to improved domestic food supply and easing global oil prices.
The anticipated drop in inflation is largely driven by the upcoming main harvest season, which will boost food supply. This improvement is expected to ease food inflation, which stood at 3.9% in June 2026. Non-food inflation, which reached 6.3% in June, is also projected to ease significantly. This is due to a combination of lower global oil prices and an appreciating Ghana cedi.
Ghana's economic stability remains a key focus for policymakers. The Bank of Ghana's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged in July 2026. This cautious approach aims to balance inflation risks with efforts to maintain the cedi's stability and support ongoing economic recovery. The cedi's performance against major currencies directly impacts import costs, especially for fuel and other essential goods.
Deloitte's West Africa Inflation update highlights these factors. The firm's analysis suggests that the combined effect of agricultural improvements and external price moderation will create a more stable price environment. This outlook provides a crucial benchmark for businesses and consumers planning for the second half of 2026.
Ghana's year-on-year headline inflation increased to 5.3% in June 2026 from 3.7% in May. Food inflation rose to 3.9% in June from 3.3% in May, driven by higher costs for local items like ginger. Non-food inflation also increased to 6.3% in June from 4.1% in May. This was due to higher service costs, including transport fares, housing, and school fees.
Despite these increases, consumer prices decreased by 0.2% month-on-month in June 2026. This was a significant drop from 1.1% in May, primarily due to falling global pump prices for gasoline. Inflation for locally produced goods increased to 6.7% from 5.0% in May, accounting for 86.6% of headline inflation. Imported inflation, by contrast, rose to a more modest 2.3%.
Inflationary pressures in June 2026 were largely service-driven. Nine out of 13 divisions recorded inflation above the national average of 5.3%. This indicates elevated costs in formal and contract-based services. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels inflation decreased to 7.9% in June from 11.8% in May. This reflected milder price pressures and stabilizing utility costs, partly due to downward utility tariff adjustments in the second quarter of 2026.
Transport inflation increased to 9.1% in June from -2.8% in May. This surge was driven by a 20% nationwide increase in public transport fares, including bus and 'trotro' fares, which took effect on June 2, 2026. Education services inflation also rose to 8.7% in June. This was due to higher tuition and operational costs at primary and secondary schools, along with increased prices for educational materials and utilities.
Restaurants and accommodation services inflation climbed to 8.2% in June from 7.2% in May. This increase was attributed to high locally produced input costs and broader domestic service-sector price hikes. These trends underscore the complex factors influencing Ghana's inflation trajectory. The expected moderation in July 2026 offers a hopeful sign for economic stability.