Global crude oil prices are facing a potential spike to $120-$130 per barrel this summer. This surge could occur if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely inaccessible, according to analysts.
This projection comes three and a half months after the Strait of Hormuz blockage caused the worst oil supply disruption in history. Despite this, oil prices have remained below $100 per barrel, largely due to hopes of an impending U.S.-Iran deal. However, key market buffers that have kept prices in check are now diminishing.
Ghana, as an oil-importing nation for a significant portion of its energy needs, will experience direct impacts from increased global oil prices. Higher crude oil costs will likely translate into increased pump prices for petrol and diesel, affecting transportation costs and overall inflation. This trend could challenge Ghana's economic stability, particularly in its industrial and transport sectors. Ghana recorded a $4.2 billion trade surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, but rising import costs for fuel could pressure future trade balances.
Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, stated, “From an inventory perspective, we believe that the end of July could be an inflection point for the market if there is no improvement in energy flows from the Persian Gulf.” His analysis suggests that this inflection point, without sustained improvement in Hormuz traffic, could push Brent Crude prices to as much as $120-$130 per barrel this summer. This price increase would intensify pressure on the U.S. for a deal.
The depletion of crucial market buffers will drive this potential price increase. China, the world’s top crude importer, has previously slashed imports to multi-year lows. The U.S. also boosted its crude exports to record highs. Releases of strategic oil stocks in developed economies further helped mitigate price pressures. These measures are becoming unsustainable.
Crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest level since October 2017. This decline was a direct response to the price spike. China has also started tapping its significant oil reserves, avoiding paying top dollar for immediate crude deliveries. Moving forward, the question is how long China can maintain stock draws and reduced refinery output before actively purchasing more crude.
Record-high U.S. oil and fuel exports, running 1.8 million barrels per day above year-ago levels, are also unsustainable. These increased exports are coming from inventory, not additional supply growth. Any government intervention regarding U.S. exports could further tighten the market.
Additionally, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) releases, particularly in the U.S., are nearing completion by the end of July. This cessation of releases will remove another significant buffer, compounding the market's tightness during peak summer demand. ING’s base case anticipates that the Strait of Hormuz flows will remain largely constrained until the end of July. This expectation suggests the market will face a deficit over the third quarter, with Brent Crude prices averaging $110 per barrel between July and September.
Decision-makers in Ghana will be closely monitoring global oil prices, as sustained high costs could necessitate adjustments in national budget allocations and economic planning. The current environment underscores the need for robust energy policies and diversification efforts to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil markets.