Nigeria’s crude oil output reached 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, marking a 15-month high. Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) confirmed this significant increase.
This surge in production signals that Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, is successfully overcoming previous challenges. For years, oil theft, sabotage, and spills hindered its ability to meet production targets. The latest figures show Nigeria produced 102% of its 1.5 million bpd OPEC+ quota in May, slightly exceeding its ceiling.
This renewed production capacity in Nigeria holds considerable relevance for Ghana's economic landscape. Ghana's petroleum revenue is projected to reach $1.5 billion in 2026, according to Ato Forson. While Nigeria's output directly impacts its own fiscal position, a more stable and increased regional oil supply could influence global prices. Such trends indirectly affect Ghana's energy import costs and overall economic stability. The World Bank, IMF, and IEA have warned that global conflicts like the war in Iran could trigger food security issues, job losses, and high fuel prices in Ghana. Nigeria's increased output could help stabilize the regional supply.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported that combined crude and condensate production reached an 11-month high of 1.7 million bpd in May. This total includes 170,446 bpd of condensate output. The last time Nigeria achieved an average of more than 1.7 million bpd of crude and condensate for a full month was in July 2025.
A recent crackdown on oil theft and sabotage in the Niger Delta has been crucial to this success. Nigerian authorities are actively increasing crude oil production to respond to global supply disruptions. They aim to raise output by 100,000 bpd in the short term to capitalize on widening supply gaps. Udy Ntia, Executive Vice President for Upstream at Nigeria's state-owned oil company NNPC, stated in November 2025 that they plan to increase oil production to 2 million bpd over the next two years.
This increased oil production by Nigeria has several implications for the West African region. It could lead to greater energy security and potentially more stable fuel prices. Decision-makers and markets will watch closely to see if Nigeria sustains this growth. Continued increases could enhance state revenues and reduce reliance on energy imports for neighboring countries. Ghana's economic planners will monitor these developments for their impact on domestic energy policies and revenue forecasts.