Ghana’s crude oil production has fallen by 47.79% since peaking in 2019. Production reached 37.30 million barrels in 2025, down from 71.44 million barrels in 2019, according to analysis by the Institute for Energy Security (IES).
This significant decline results from Ghana's reliance on three ageing offshore fields: Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa Gye Nyame. The IES report indicates that a lack of new exploration, investment, and effective reservoir management has led to this structural issue. This trend affects government finances, foreign exchange earnings, and the domestic gas supply.
The decreasing oil production is a major concern for Ghana's economic stability. Petroleum revenues are crucial for funding the Annual Budget Funding Amount, Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC) operations, and infrastructure projects. The Energy Commission forecasts a further decline to 34.83 million barrels in 2026, which would represent a 51.24% drop from the 2019 peak. This situation tightens public finances and increases the burden of energy sector obligations.
Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, authors of the IES report, state that Ghana's ageing oil fields expose state revenues to deeper pressure. They explain that the problem is not a temporary production dip but rather systemic failures in replacing depleted reserves. The country has not added a major new producing field in over eight years.
The immediate impact on revenue is evident. Total petroleum receipts decreased from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025. This represents a 43.27% drop, caused by lower output and a weaker crude price of US$74.93 per barrel in 2025, down from US$86.12 per barrel in 2024.
This sustained decline will restrict the government's ability to finance critical projects and meet financial commitments. Policymakers must focus on strategies to reverse this trend. This includes attracting new investment in exploration and development. Ghana has not signed a new Petroleum Agreement since 2018, which limits future production growth. The concentration of production in three fields means that disruptions, such as the Jubilee field's maintenance shutdown in early 2025, have a large national impact.
The IES report emphasizes that COVID-19 worsened operational constraints but did not cause the decline. The downturn started in 2020 and continued after pandemic restrictions eased. Inaction has had a high cost. IES estimates that maintaining a conservative 3.00% annual production growth from 2019 could have generated an additional 221 million barrels by 2026. This translates to over US$16.50 billion in lost gross revenue potential at US$75 per barrel.
The government must address the structural issues in Ghana's oil sector to safeguard its fiscal health and energy future. New exploration and development initiatives are essential to diversify the production base and mitigate risks associated with ageing fields. The long-term implications for Ghana's economy are significant if crude oil production continues its downward trend.