Energy & Resources

    Ghana faces 4,000 annual heat deaths by 2050

    A new report warns of a deadly gap between rising temperatures and slow electricity growth, placing Ghana among 18 countries in a 'Mortality-Cooling Trap'.

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    Ghana is projected to face over 4,000 additional heat-related deaths annually by 2050. This dire forecast comes from a new energy-focused report by the Climate Impact Lab. The report highlights a critical gap between Ghana's rising temperatures and its slow-growing electricity supply. Researchers identify Ghana as one of 18 countries caught in a “Mortality-Cooling Trap.” This trap describes nations where temperatures are increasing rapidly, but electricity supply is not expanding quickly enough. This prevents people from accessing essential cooling technologies like fans and air conditioners, which could save lives. About one-third of Ghana's population currently lives in these high-risk areas. This situation fits into a broader global energy narrative where climate-driven temperature changes are expected to cause approximately 430,000 additional deaths each year by 2050. The ability to save these lives largely depends on access to electricity, particularly for cooling during extreme heat events. The report finds this access to be dangerously unequal across the world. Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab, emphasized the severity of the issue. He stated, “Air conditioning is a lifesaver, and climate change will no doubt lead to more AC adoption in today's wealthy countries. Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way.” Greenstone, also a Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, added that this situation is one of climate's great cruelties, causing deaths in countries least responsible for climate change. The implications are significant for Ghana's public health and economic development. Decision-makers must prioritize improving the functioning of electricity markets to deliver inexpensive and reliable energy. This will enable successful adaptations that can save lives. The report serves as a clarion call for immediate action to bolster Ghana's energy infrastructure. Compared to its West African neighbours, Ghana's situation is mixed. The report projects Ghana to fare better than Burkina Faso, which could see 60 additional deaths per 100,000 people. Togo is also projected to have a worse outlook with 32 additional deaths per 100,000. However, Ghana is worse off than Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, neither of which appear on the trapped-countries list. Nigeria, for instance, is projected to see a much healthier 23% increase in electricity consumption, offering a better chance to use cooling technology. The energy gap is particularly evident across Africa, especially in the Sahel region. The same poor countries projected to see minimal increases in electricity also tend to be hotter. The report identifies areas home to 676 million people trapped in this deadly combination of extreme heat and stagnant electricity supply. Around 377,000 people in these trapped areas are set to die annually by 2050. Thirteen of the 18 trapped countries are in northern sub-Saharan Africa, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad. These countries are expected to see only tiny increases in electricity supply. For example, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad are projected to gain only about 0.06 to 0.07 gigajoules (GJ) of electricity per person. This amount is insufficient for many homes to run fans, air conditioners, or other cooling systems. In Chad, electricity use is expected to increase by 162%, but this is from a very low base, meaning many people will still lack reliable access. This starkly contrasts with wealthier nations in similar climates. Countries like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia in the Gulf region are as hot as sub-Saharan Africa. However, they consume significantly more electricity for cooling and are projected to see much larger increases, leading to far fewer deaths. The disparity underscores the urgent need for investment and policy changes in Ghana's energy sector.

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