Ghana's economy is projected to grow by 5.9% to 6.1% in 2026, according to Standard Bank Research. This positive forecast holds even with ongoing Middle East tensions. Major drivers include growth in gold mining, critical infrastructure projects, and healthier foreign exchange reserves.
This revised outlook stems from Ghana's stronger-than-expected economic performance in 2025. The economy grew by 6%, outperforming initial forecasts of 5.6-5.8%. This solid 2025 growth has boosted confidence in Ghana's economic future.
The projected growth supports Ghana's broader economic narrative of recovery and structural strengthening. Significant public investments in infrastructure are key. These include the Tema Port expansion, the Accra-Tema motorway expansion, and the Kumasi airport reconstruction. These projects create jobs and stimulate business activity across various sectors. The Bank of Ghana's domestic gold purchase programme also acts as a vital protection against international economic shocks.
Jibran Qureishi, Standard Bank's Head of Africa Research, outlined these projections. He spoke at a webinar organized by Stanbic Bank Ghana. Mr. Qureishi noted that the 2025 growth exceeded their expectations. He added that the 2026 growth range remains firm, with potential for expansion to 6.2% to 6.3% in 2027.
The improved economic health means Ghana can better withstand global challenges. The government's commitment to projects like the domestic gold purchase programme reinforces this resilience. Although this programme has caused some accounting losses for the Bank of Ghana due to sterilisation costs, policymakers believe its benefits outweigh the short-term financial pressures. Qureishi confirmed they expect policymakers to remain steadfast on the domestic gold purchase program.
Standard Bank also maintains a positive forecast for gold prices. Strong demand from central banks in emerging markets supports this. Expectations of a weaker US dollar also contribute to this outlook. This is good news for Ghana, as gold exports continue to increase despite price changes in international markets.
Foreign investment in Ghana's local debt market has significantly decreased. It is now below 5%, down from nearly 40% before the pandemic. This reduction, while challenging for external funding, has protected Ghana from global market swings. Standard Bank calls Ghana a “low beta market.” This means Ghana's economy is less affected by volatility in international financial markets. This structural change helps Ghana maintain steady growth, providing a strong basis for the projected expansion in 2026 and beyond.