Ghana is projected to see a reduction in malaria cases but a significant increase in heat-related deaths by 2050, according to new research. Studies from the Climate Impact Lab and a major paper in the journal Nature highlight this dual impact of rising temperatures. The country's electricity supply is not growing fast enough to help people cool down and protect themselves from the escalating heat.
The Nature study, led by Colin J. Carlson of Yale University, analyzed over 50,000 medical surveys from 1900 to 2016. It found that malaria, which thrives around 25°C, struggles when temperatures exceed 34°C. As Ghana warms, parts of the country will cross this threshold, making it harder for mosquitoes to survive and spread the disease. Climate change has already reduced malaria prevalence in Ghana by an estimated 4.94 cases per 1,000 children.
This reduction is projected to grow to 7.85 cases per 1,000 children by 2050 and 15.12 cases per 1,000 children by 2100. This places Ghana in the middle of regional projections, with a smaller decline than Burkina Faso's 20.71 cases per 1,000 or Mali's 23.55 cases per 1,000 by 2100. Tamma Carleton, Faculty Head of Research at the Climate Impact Lab, stated that climate change is shifting malaria's burden, providing relief in current hotspots.
A separate Climate Impact Lab report, "Adaptation Roadmap: Human Health," offers a less optimistic outlook. This report, published in March 2026, projects about 430,000 additional deaths globally each year by 2050 due to climate-driven temperature changes. Heat-related deaths are expected to be roughly 10 times higher in poorer countries than in wealthy ones.
Ghana is projected to experience approximately 19 additional heat-related deaths for every 100,000 people nationally by 2050. This number rises sharply in the country's most exposed regions, with heat deaths projected to increase by 30 per 100,000 people. Neighboring countries like Burkina Faso face even higher projections, with 60 additional deaths per 100,000, and Niger, with 68 additional deaths per 100,000.
The same rising heat that eases Ghana's malaria burden also poses a significant and growing risk to human life. This highlights that a warming climate rarely brings only good or only bad news to a single location. The complex interplay of these factors demands careful consideration for future policy and infrastructure development.
A third Climate Impact Lab report, "Adaptation Roadmap: Energy," published in July 2026, explains why rising heat is particularly dangerous in places like Ghana. Many communities lack sufficient electricity growth to power cooling devices such as fans and air conditioners. This report identifies 18 countries, including Ghana, caught in what it terms the "Mortality-Cooling Trap."
These are places where heat deaths are increasing sharply, but electricity supply is not growing quickly enough to provide adequate protection. About 31% of Ghana's population lives in these high-risk, low-electricity-growth areas. In these specific regions, mortality is projected to rise by 30 deaths per 100,000 people, underscoring the urgent need for infrastructure development and energy policy adjustments to mitigate these risks.