Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party's presidential candidate, holds a measurable electoral advantage over every major potential National Democratic Congress (NDC) contender for the 2028 general elections, according to a new nationwide survey.
The Africa Policy Lens (APL) poll, conducted from July 27 to August 7, 2026, interviewed 16,963 voters across all 276 constituencies. This extensive survey tested Dr. Bawumia in seven hypothetical one-on-one contests against prominent NDC figures. Across all matchups, Dr. Bawumia secured between 45.7% and 49.9% of national voter support, indicating a consistent lead.
This finding suggests a potential shift in voter sentiment or consolidation of support for the NPP's candidate. The survey's broad geographical scope, covering all constituencies, provides a comprehensive snapshot of public opinion. It reflects current voter preferences rather than predicting the final outcome of the 2028 elections. The consistent lead across various matchups highlights a noteworthy pattern in the political landscape.
The APL report stated, "Although the findings should be interpreted as a reflection of public opinion at a particular point in time rather than as a prediction of future electoral outcomes, the consistency of Dr. Bawumia's advantage across all hypothetical contests constitutes a noteworthy pattern." This statement emphasizes the current nature of the data. It also underscores the importance of ongoing political developments and campaigns in shaping future voter decisions.
Dr. Bawumia led Johnson Asiedu Nketia 45.8% to 42.4%, and Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson 45.7% to 42.8%. He also led Hon. Haruna Iddrisu 45.9% to 41.5%. His margins were wider against Prof. Naana Jane Opoku-Agyemang at 47.4% to 40.2%, and Dr. Julius Debrah at 48.4% to 37.9%. The largest leads were against Hon. Eric Opoku at 49.8% to 33.9%, and Prof. Joshua Alabi at 49.9% to 34.4%. Undecided voters ranged from 7.2% to 9.3% in the different matchups, indicating a significant segment of the electorate yet to commit.
Beyond the national numbers, the survey found Dr. Bawumia winning between 9 and 11 of Ghana’s 16 regions in every single matchup tested. This regional performance suggests that Dr. Bawumia's support is nationally competitive and geographically broad. It is not confined to a limited number of traditional NPP regional strongholds. This widespread appeal could be a critical factor in the upcoming elections.
The implications of these findings are significant for both the NPP and the NDC. For the NPP, it provides a boost in confidence and a potential roadmap for consolidating support. For the NDC, it signals the need for strategic adjustments and intensified campaign efforts to close the gap. Political analysts will closely watch how both parties respond to these early indicators. The undecided voter segment, ranging from 7.2% to 9.3%, represents a crucial battleground for both parties. Their eventual choices will heavily influence the final election results. Future polls will be essential in tracking shifts in public opinion as the 2028 elections draw closer.
The survey results, while not a prediction, offer valuable insights into the current political climate. They highlight the challenges and opportunities facing Ghana's major political parties. The consistent lead for Dr. Bawumia across various scenarios presents a strong starting point for his campaign. However, the political landscape is dynamic, and sustained engagement will be key. Both parties will need to articulate clear visions for Ghana's economic future and address citizen concerns effectively. The focus will remain on economic stability, job creation, and cost of living issues, which often sway voters.