PwC is urging Ghanaian Chief Executive Officers and Boards to closely monitor monthly inflation, particularly food and imported components. They also advise close attention to changes in Treasury bill and bank lending rates. This guidance is crucial for navigating Ghana's economic landscape in the second half of the year.
This recommendation follows increasing global economic uncertainty, largely due to the Middle East conflict. This conflict could significantly impact commodity and financial markets worldwide. PwC notes that Ghana's economic outlook for the second half of the year is increasingly exposed to global energy and geopolitical cycles.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth of 3% in 2026 and global inflation of 4.7%. The IMF also notes that the global disinflation process has stalled. Its baseline assumes average oil prices of approximately US$89 per barrel. The World Bank projects Brent crude at about US$86 per barrel in 2026. It also forecasts a 31% rise in fertiliser prices, including a 60% increase in urea prices. These global factors directly influence Ghana's import costs and overall economic stability.
PwC states that a prolonged Middle East conflict would raise fuel, freight, insurance, and food production costs. This would worsen Ghana’s trade balance and increase domestic transport and electricity pressures. A further complication is the tightening bias re-emerging in major economies. Renewed energy inflation is limiting the ability of central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), and Bank of England (BoE) to reduce interest rates. Higher-for-longer global rates would delay Ghana’s return to affordable international capital markets. This would also increase the cost of trade finance and external corporate borrowing.
Despite these challenges, PwC identifies several upside opportunities for Ghana. Elevated gold prices continue to support exports and foreign reserves. Supply-chain diversification could attract new manufacturing investment into the country. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) also creates potential for regional exports. Ghana's relative political stability further enhances its appeal for investors.
For the manufacturing sector, PwC sees improving macro stability, lower interest rates, and a steadier Ghana cedi as positives. However, the main risk remains the potential for imported input costs to rise again in the second half of the year. Delayed government spending on infrastructure, including roads, transport, special economic zones, and power, sends negative signals to businesses seeking to invest or expand.
In agriculture, government support through initiatives like 'Feed Ghana' and enclave roads is meaningful. However, some agricultural projects, such as the Poultry Farm to Table Project, have faced criticism for being wasteful and poorly executed. For cocoa and mining, external earnings are supportive, but businesses must hedge against commodity volatility and policy shifts. The oil and gas sector, despite ongoing reforms, still faces material risks from legacy arrears and State-Owned Enterprises. PwC advises treating this sector as having upside potential, but not yet fully de-risked.
The banking and insurance sectors benefit from macro stabilization, which improves asset quality and balance-sheet planning. Yet, margin compression and re-pricing risk require careful management. Better interest rates support the construction and real estate sectors, but public capital expenditure sequencing and imported material costs remain key swing factors. Retailers and importers may see improved near-term demand, but foreign exchange management remains essential. Technology and telecoms businesses are among the clearest medium-term beneficiaries of digitalisation and formalisation initiatives.