Mali's industrial gold production is expected to remain below 60 metric tons annually through 2029, according to a mines ministry plan. This projection extends a decline that began after the introduction of a revised mining code and ongoing disputes between the state and mining companies. The forecast indicates a challenging period for one of Africa's top gold-producing nations.
The Malian mines ministry's 2026-2029 plan forecasts industrial gold output at 43.2 tons in 2026. Production is then expected to rise to 51.2 tons in 2027, peaking at 57 tons in 2028, before easing to 50 tons in 2029. This downward trend follows a significant drop from 66.5 tons in 2023 to 42.2 tons in 2025, with a revised 54.8 tons in 2024.
This anticipated reduction in gold output is directly linked to Mali's 2023 mining code, which aimed to boost state revenues. The new regulations have led to increased government scrutiny and disputes with major mining firms. A government audit in December recovered 761 billion CFA francs (GHS 1.2 billion) in alleged arrears from mining companies, highlighting the state's more assertive stance.
The mining reforms have significantly rattled investors, leading to prolonged disputes. One notable case involved Canadian miner Barrick, which saw its Loulo-Gounkoto complex temporarily administered by the state before a settlement was reached last year. Such incidents have weighed heavily on investor sentiment and overall production, offsetting potential gains from new mines.
The Malian mines ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment regarding the basis for these projections. However, the plan indicates that production will be led by key operations including B2Gold's Fekola mine, Barrick's Loulo-Gounkoto complex, Resolute's Syama operation, and Allied's Sadiola mine. These four operations are expected to account for the bulk of the projected output through 2029.
The forecast also projects a decline in industrial gold reserves, which are expected to fall from 906.8 tons in 2026 to 748.6 tons in 2029. This reduction in reserves, coupled with lower production, could have long-term implications for Mali's economic stability. Gold exports are a critical source of foreign exchange and government revenue for the West African nation.
For Ghana, a fellow major gold producer, Mali's situation offers important lessons in mining policy and investor relations. Ghana's gold exports have recently seen significant boosts, reaching GHS 18.29 billion in the first half of 2026. This contrasts sharply with Mali's declining projections, underscoring the importance of a stable and predictable regulatory environment for attracting and retaining mining investments. Decision-makers in both countries will closely monitor these trends, as they impact regional economic dynamics and global gold markets.