Ivory Coast's 2026/27 main cocoa crop faces an 8-10 week delay, threatening severe port congestion in Abidjan and San Pedro. Exporters will rush to ship cocoa before strict European Union (EU) deforestation rules take effect at year-end.
This delay stems from difficult weather conditions, insufficient farm maintenance, and a strong mid-crop that hindered the main crop's development. The rush to export could overwhelm port infrastructure, straining storage capacity in November and December. This situation directly affects the world's largest cocoa producer and its ability to meet international demand.
This development has significant implications for Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer. Any disruption in Ivorian cocoa supply can influence global cocoa prices, potentially affecting Ghana's export revenues. Ghana's cocoa sector, managed by COCOBOD, closely monitors regional market dynamics. Both nations are preparing for the EU's new deforestation regulations, which require proof that products do not originate from deforested land. These rules will apply to cocoa imports into the EU from December 30, 2026.
Industry sources, including two officials from Ivory Coast's Coffee and Cocoa Council and five exporters, expressed concerns about the impending congestion. They spoke anonymously due to the issue's sensitivity. An executive at a European export company in Abidjan stated, "With this looming delay, we will find ourselves having to export enormous quantities in a short period in December." The Coffee and Cocoa Council, the industry regulator, acknowledged the challenge, with one official confirming efforts to minimize the impact.
The delayed crop means weekly arrivals at ports are expected to remain below 15,000 metric tons in September and 25,000 metric tons in October. Main-crop volumes should only begin arriving in late October or early November, increasing through December. The Coffee and Cocoa Council projects total main crop arrivals, from September to February 28, 2027, to be no more than 1.4 million tons. Exporters, however, forecast slightly higher volumes, ranging from 1.4 million to 1.45 million metric tons. This compares to an updated 1.1 million tons received in the same period in 2025. Typically, Ivorian ports handle 800,000 to 1 million tons during these three months.
The potential for port congestion and supply chain disruptions could lead to increased shipping costs and delays for cocoa buyers. This situation may also create price volatility in the global cocoa market. Ghana's cocoa sector must remain vigilant, as any shifts in Ivorian supply could impact demand for Ghanaian cocoa. Decision-makers in both countries will need to coordinate closely to manage the logistical challenges and ensure compliance with the new EU regulations. The coming months will test the resilience of West Africa's cocoa export infrastructure.