Fitch Solutions predicts Ghana's cocoa output will hold steady at 670,000 tonnes for the 2026/27 crop season. This forecast comes amid warnings that the El Niño climate phenomenon will intensify supply risks for West African cocoa producers. Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer, faces a projected 17.50% year-on-year decline in its 2026/27 cocoa output.
The El Niño phenomenon causes extreme weather, including droughts and heavy rainfall, which disrupt agricultural production. These weather shifts will likely impact rainfall patterns, soil moisture, and increase disease pressure on cocoa crops. Furthermore, disruptions in fertiliser availability and prices, linked to the US-Iran conflict, could reduce their effective use. The timing of the main-crop fertiliser application window, around September, makes output vulnerable to these converging pressures.
This forecast highlights the continuing challenges facing Ghana's crucial cocoa sector. Cocoa is a major export for Ghana, contributing significantly to its economy and jobs. The industry has struggled with issues like the swollen shoot disease, illegal mining, ageing trees, and smuggling. Flat production at 670,000 tonnes suggests that past efforts to boost output might be undermined by these new weather and input challenges. This could affect Ghana's trade balance and government revenues from cocoa.
Fitch Solutions highlighted the vulnerability of cocoa supply due to the prevalence of smallholder farmers. They stated, "We view the dominance of smallholder farmers as another factor increasing supply vulnerability, as smallholders have limited capacity to absorb weather and input shocks." These farmers often lack access to irrigation, financing, and modern farming technologies. Such limitations leave their production highly exposed to erratic rainfall and other input-related shocks.
Ghana's government and cocoa sector authorities are trying to stabilise the sector through various reforms. These include improving financing for cocoa purchases and supporting farmers. However, Fitch's warning indicates that weather and input risks could reduce the effectiveness of these interventions. Decision-makers will closely monitor the impact of El Niño and fertiliser prices on the upcoming crop seasons. Sustained low output could lead to higher global cocoa prices, impacting chocolate manufacturers and consumers worldwide.